EMERGING THREATS TO ENERGY SECURITY AND STABILITY NATO ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP

Georgian Foreign Minister Tedo Japaridze arrives at Windsor Castle for the NATO Workshop on Emerging Threats to Energy Security and Stability, January 23-25, 2004

January 23 to January 25, 2004 - St. George's House, Windsor Castle, UK

This two-day NATO-sponsored workshop was organized by the Windsor Energy Group with the assistance of the Institute for Applied Science and grant support from NATO's Public Diplomacy Division as well as other sponsors in global energy security. Sir David Gore Booth, Chairman of the Windsor Energy Group and Dr. Evgeny Velikhov, Founding Director of the Institute for Applied Science and President of the Russian Research Center, the Kurchatov Institute served as the Co-Directors for the Workshop.

The workshop promoted a public-private sector exchange on how best to address the issues arising in energy security at a time of growing uncertainty. In particular, it assessed emerging threats to energy security and stability and discussed new security strategies to protect global energy supplies from regional instability and terrorism.

It did so by involving a wide-ranging international group of policy-formers and advisers in a unique forum for intensive expert discussion. The workshop built on the annual meeting of the Windsor Energy Group that brings together senior figures from the public and private sector to review common concerns relating to the geopolitics of energy. Details of the group are attached.

The event was by invitation and limited to some 55 participants with representatives from approximately 20 countries. An Ambassadors dinner on Saturday evening enabled sitting ambassadors from leading energy producing countries to exchange views with workshop participants.

The contributions of the principal speakers at the Workshop together with related background contributions and findings will be published in hard back by NATO as part of the NATO Science Series. Alternatively, go to http://www.iapscience.com/ianrs_programme.php to view the complete Energy Security Workshop program and presentations online.

The international community is increasingly conscious of the need to develop new energy security strategies in order to protect global energy supplies from regional instability and terrorism.

Energy security is a vital element in international stability. However, a variety of energy-related economic, technical, and military/political factors pose serious challenges to the international community's pursuit of energy security and stability:

The global economy is expected to continue to be largely dependent on oil and gas for the next twenty to thirty years. Current levels of production may need to be doubled in this period, with most of the increment coming from the Gulf States who control 66% of global oil reserves and 40% of global natural gas reserves.

• There are forecasts of significant capacity shortfalls.
• Existing oil and gas distribution networks -- for example those linking the Caspian, the Middle East and new markets in Asia -- are considered to be inadequate.
• Regional instability: the impact and aftermath of the US-led military intervention in Iraq in 2003; tensions in other oil producing regions.
• The growth of anti-western terrorism.

The workshop examined the strengths and vulnerabilities of the global energy production and distribution system. It assessed emerging threats to energy security and stability, and it developed recommendations for energy security strategies to counter the threats posed by regional instability and terrorism. Discussion topics included:

• Current production trends and the impact of capacity shortfalls on energy security.
• US and Russian strategic energy interests.
• Energy security and unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus.
• The emergence of new energy markets in Asia.
• The role of the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
• The role of the private sector in energy security policy.
• Regional instability.
• UN oil sanctions and illicit trafficking.
• Emerging terrorist threats facing major oil and gas production and transit states; protection of oil and gas production facilities, pipelines, shipping and refineries.

Representatives from 20 countries participated in the workshop; including experts and policy makers from key governments, international organizations and the private sector.

• To highlight emerging threats to energy security and stability.
• To improve co-operation and information sharing between governments, international regulatory bodies and the private sector in the formulation and implementation of energy security strategies.
• To examine ways to strengthen international capabilities to deter and detect terrorist threats to energy supplies.
• To develop and coordinate bilateral and multilateral energy security and stability strategies.